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Bama Basketball - What's our "magic" number of wins for the NCAA tourney invite

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  • Bama Basketball - What's our "magic" number of wins for the NCAA tourney invite

    .. (Current) 2017-18 SEC Standings

    Auburn 7-1 - 19-2
    Florida 6-2 1 15-6
    Kentucky 5-3 2 16-5
    Tennessee 5-3 2 15-5
    Alabama 5-3 2 14-7
    Arkansas 4-4 3 15-6
    South Carolina 4-4 3 13-8
    Ole Miss 4-4 3 11-10
    Mississippi State 3-5 4 15-6
    Missouri 3-5 4 13-8
    LSU 3-5 4 12-8
    Georgia 3-5 4 12-8
    Texas A&M 2-6 5 13-8
    Vanderbilt 2-6 5 8-13

    We have 10 games remaining, all against SEC foes, three of those foes are currently ranked (we play UF twice, so 4 games against ranked opponents), and home/away are split equally at 5 games each (as are the ranked team home/away games). If the win number is 20 (as it has been in the past), then the odds are against us. But, plenty of 18 and 19 win teams have gotten into the tourney in the past few years, albeit with crappy seeding that usually means they are bounced in the 1st or 2nd round. Maybe this weekend's showdown with the Big12, which the SEC won, will carry some weight with the Committee. Maybe the win against Oklahoma or FAU will be the tipping point. Or, maybe the Georgia or Vandy losses will be our Achilles heel.

    I really want this team to succeed, but they are making it very hard.
    "There were no arguments, those were ass chewings....."
    Nick Saban 9/10/2016

  • #2
    Let's break it down by game:

    Home Slate:
    --Missouri
    --Tennessee
    --LSU
    --Arkansas
    --Florida

    Our only home loss this year was not a good one. It was against UCF. With that being said, there's a chance we win all of those games at home. Not saying it's likely, so let's say we go 4-1 and lose either 10RC or Florida. Neither of those are bad losses and we'd pick up 3 more top 50 RPI wins.

    Road Slate:
    --@ Florida
    --@ Mississippi State
    --@ Kentucky
    --@ Auburn
    --@ Texas A&M

    In reality, we probably got 1-4 against that schedule. Best case scenario is probably 2-3. You can pretty much assume losses at Florida, Kentucky, and Auburn.

    If we finish 5-5 down the stretch, that's 19-13 overall and 10-8 in SEC play. I think that's enough to get in the tourney. Our SOS is very strong and our "bad losses" are @ Vandy, @ Ole Miss, and against Minnesota. We might even get a little bit of a pass for the @ Ole Miss because Sexton wasn't healthy.

    What absolutely can't happen is dropping 2 at home and going winless on the road. That puts you at 3-7 to finish the season. 17-14 and 8-8 in conference play starts to get really dicey. The SEC is probably going to get a lot of bids because the Big 10 and Pac-12 may only get 5 bids between them. If we are above .500 in conference play, I think we're in good shape. .500 or less and we are probably hosting a NIT game.
    barney_stinson_signature_by_schub3rt.jpg

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    • #3
      We have to win all remaining home games, along with a win or two on the road, such as Miss St and TAMU. I don't see us beating UF or Ky on the road, and probably not even the barn, unless we can perform like we did against Oklahoma. Our 2 toughest home games are against UF and UT. Winning those are a must. Our next game is against Mizzou at home. We can't have a letdown game against them.

      I'm really hoping that after the Ok game, this team may be starting to gel. That's gonna have to be the case to have a good finish to get in. I'm buckled up again.

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      • #4
        I think the number is 20. With a strong showing in the SEC tourney 19 season wins might do it. We've lost too many games we should have won and the margin for additional losses is very low.

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        • #5
          It's important to remember that with our strength of schedule we have a larger margin of error. Teams that are currently out on Joe Lunardi's Bracketology:

          Team, SOS, Non-Conference SOS
          Team SOS Non-Conference SOS
          Missouri 16 60
          Virginia Tech 111 295
          Western Kentucky 35 20
          Washington 60 47
          Maryland 46 187
          Notre Dame 62 189
          South Carolina 36 63
          Georgia 50 161
          Bama 8 10
          We've got a larger margin for error than literally every one of those teams.
          barney_stinson_signature_by_schub3rt.jpg

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Barney Stinson View Post
            It's important to remember that with our strength of schedule we have a larger margin of error. Teams that are currently out on Joe Lunardi's Bracketology:

            Team, SOS, Non-Conference SOS
            Team SOS Non-Conference SOS
            Missouri 16 60
            Virginia Tech 111 295
            Western Kentucky 35 20
            Washington 60 47
            Maryland 46 187
            Notre Dame 62 189
            South Carolina 36 63
            Georgia 50 161
            Bama 8 10
            We've got a larger margin for error than literally every one of those teams.

            I'm not sure that I understand. Did you add Bama to the table just for comparison? Lunardi has us as a 9 seed.

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            • #7
              We received a mere 6 votes in today's AP poll.

              I did see that we were 20th out of the 36 at-large spots in Andy Katz's rankings. (The other 32 tournament teams are automatic qualifiers).

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Hannibal Lecter MD View Post


                I'm not sure that I understand. Did you add Bama to the table just for comparison? Lunardi has us as a 9 seed.
                Yes. That was in response to McBaman saying we needed 20 wins. Just saying that we are currently safely in the tourney. Those are the first 8 teams out of the tourney. For someone to be kicked out, someone has to play their way in. I don't see any of those 8 necessarily doing that.

                Also, we're not one of the last 8 in either. We're good as long as we don't completely implode.
                barney_stinson_signature_by_schub3rt.jpg

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                • #9
                  Good job by the team in the classroom. You don't expect to read about a one & done player (Sexton) posting a 4.0.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Hannibal Lecter MD View Post
                    Good job by the team in the classroom. You don't expect to read about a one & done player (Sexton) posting a 4.0.

                    Basket weaving harder than it used to be?

                    This post was meant to be a joke. Please no one get #madonline

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Stan View Post

                      Basket weaving harder than it used to be?

                      This post was meant to be a joke. Please no one get #madonline
                      Rueben is already going to whip your ass. I guess you might as well piss off a few more too.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Hannibal Lecter MD View Post

                        Rueben is already going to whip your ass. I guess you might as well piss off a few more too.
                        Most of y'all are soft and over the hill

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Stan View Post

                          Most of y'all are soft and over the hill
                          Should be a fair fight then.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Hannibal Lecter MD View Post

                            Should be a fair fight then.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Stan View Post

                              Most of y'all are soft and over the hill
                              Cards all out on the table, most of us couldn't make it up that hill and still would be sitting at the bottom.
                              barney_stinson_signature_by_schub3rt.jpg

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